The Economics of Conflict: An Econometric Investigation of War’s Impact on Growth in the Middle East and Africa (2010–2023)

Abstract

Wars have deeply determined the economic spheres of the Middle East and Africa, leading to long-term instability and developmental complications. While the human cost of conflict is well documented, its economic results remain overlooked. This study applies an econometric approach to analyse the impact of war on economic growth across conflict affected countries from 2010 to 2023. The findings reveal that both war and corruption significantly restrict economic performance, with corruption negatively impacting growth (-0.3747) and conflict-driven instability, as measured by the Global Peace Index, further intensifying economic decline (-1.7803). Yet, the direct economic cost of war was found to be statistically insignificant, suggesting that broader systemic setbacks such as institutional deterioration, capital flight, and governance failures are the primary obstacles to growth. The results highlight the urgent need for strong governance, anti-corruption standards, and peace-building strategies to support post-conflict economic recovery. This study provides practical insights for policymakers, offering strategic recommendations to promote sustainable development in war-affected regions.