Brexit, the War in Ukraine and the Explanatory Power of Liberal Intergovernmentalism and Postfunctionalism

Abstract

This paper attempts to provide a fresh examination of some of the assumptions that underpin two theories explaining the processes of European integration – liberal intergovernmentalism and postfunctionalism – in the context of two major crises that the European Union (EU) has had to contend with over the course of the last 10 years – the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the EU and the Ukrainian crisis, which in February 2022 escalated into a full-blown Russian invasion of Ukraine. It demonstrates how 1) liberal intergovernmentalism, particularly with regard to the domestic preferences formation stage and some critiques notwithstanding, is highly relevant in explaining the developments surrounding the decision to hold a referendum on the UK’s continued future in the European Union, 2) postfunctionalism then takes up the baton in accounting for the main reasons behind the pro-”Leave” result of the 2016 referendum, which eventually resulted in the country’s formal withdrawal from the EU on 31 January 2020, 3) the war in Ukraine has in both an indirect and direct fashion brought about a change (that has the potential to turn out to be a fundamental one) in the post-Brexit relations between the EU and the UK, which once again can at least partially be explained by drawing on both of the abovementioned theories of European integration.